Cainicide? Larry Sabato Says ‘Not So Fast’

While everyone else writes off Grand Old Partier Hormone Cain (R-My Place Or Mine?), Mr. Crystal Ball Larry Sabato reminds us of this in a Rasmussen Report commentary:

The lesson of history is clear, as our quick-take chart shows: From 1976 to 2008, there has been a major surprise every time either in Iowa or New Hampshire . A back-of-the-pack candidate greatly exceeds expectations. Or the frontrunner stumbles. Or the field is scrambled in some other way.

Helpful chart :

Sabato concludes:

OK, sure, you say. That’s all in our past. We’ve got a much better fix on 2012. We’ve learned from our mistakes. We’ve got daily — sometimes, hourly — polls to keep us on the beam.

And your cloudy Crystal Ball counters with one question: Given the unimpressive record of early nomination predictions from 1976 to 2008, why should we think it will be any different this time?

Cainiacs everywhere, take heart.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s