The Red Sox 99.6% Dissolution

New York Times stat-cat Nate Silver had a knee-Bucknering piece yesterday charting the Red Sox September collapse:

The Boston Red Sox odds of reaching the playoffs peaked on Sept. 3. Following a 12-7 win against the Texas Rangers, they held a 9-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays with 24 games to play, giving them a 99.6 percent chance of making the post-season.

Even more knee-buckling:

And that is only part of the story. More unlikely still was the Rays’ comeback against the Yankees, without which the Red Sox would have had an opportunity to redeem themselves in a one-game playoff. Trailing 7-0 in the 8th inning, the Rays’ winning chances were all the way down to 0.3 percent — about 300-to-1 against — before they scored 6 runs in the bottom of the inning.

It just gets worse from there. Read it and reap.

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3 Responses to The Red Sox 99.6% Dissolution

  1. And then there’s this other 538 column, written 2 days before the end:

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/september-collapse-of-red-sox-could-be-worst-ever/

    The graph accompanying that article illustrates the enormity of the Sox’s futility.

    But the column you cite today has an xkcd, so it’s automatically better.

  2. Pingback: So How Did State Farm Get A Free Ad On Campaign Outsider? | Campaign Outsider

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